New redistricting data shows big growth in 1st Congressional District
One of the biggest duties of the state legislature this year will be dealing with the decennial redistricting of congressional and legislative seats following last year’s U.S. Census.
The state legislature posted preliminary data on redistricting on its website today for congressional, state House, state Senate and Public Regulations Commission seats.
The data from the U.S. Census Bureau, compiled by Albuquerque-based polling outfit Research & Polling, Inc., shows that the most growth occurred in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District. Population in the 3rd District also increased while population in the 2nd District fell.
New Mexico’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts are currently held by Democrats Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Luján, while the 2nd Congressional District is held by Republican Steve Pearce.
In state House districts, rural areas lost significant population while urban areas, especially the western portion of the Albuquerque metro area and the northeast portion of Las Cruces, grew in population.
The largest population drop came in state House District 28, represented by Dianne Miller Hamilton, R-Silver City, which lost 20.3 percent of its population. The district includes Sierra, Grant and Hidalgo Counties. The largest growth came in House District 29 on the west side of Albuquerque, represented by Thomas Anderson, R-Albuquerque. Population there increased just over 100 percent in the last ten years, according to the census.
The state Senate district that had the largest drop in population is the 35th district, held by John Arthur Smith, D-Deming. This district covers parts of Hidalgo, Luna and Sierra counties in southwest New Mexico.
On the other end of the spectrum, Senate District 23 held by Sen. Sander Rue, R-Albuquerque, grew by 73 percent. It covers parts of Bernalillo and Sandoval counties in the Albuquerque metro area.
The state legislature will take up the issue of redistricting later this year. In the past, the process has been complex.
The Santa Fe Reporter looked at the history of redistricting in the state and found it rife with bitter battles and litigation.
Historically, New Mexico’s redistricting process has been a litigious one. Since the 1960s, all but one of New Mexico’s redistricting plans ended up in court, sometimes with such fervent disagreement that the courts themselves had to impose redistricting plans.
“New Mexico has had, unfortunately, some pretty infamous-looking districts,” [Research & Polling president Brian] Sanderoff says. In 1981, he says, “The New Mexico Legislature applied some very creative techniques, and there were numerous lawsuits, millions of dollars of litigation, which the Legislature kept losing.”
In 1981, a federal court ruled that the state’s plan violated the Voting Rights Act. As a result, New Mexico was placed in preclearance, a designation requiring that future redistricting plans first be approved by the US Department of Justice.
In 1991, after the DOJ pre-approved (and requested revisions to) New Mexico’s redistricting proposal, the state’s plan went into effect without litigation and, by 2001, New Mexico was again free to implement its own redistricting plans without the DOJ’s involvement.
That freedom led to a bitter partisan struggle.
In 2001, despite several months of public hearings around the state and a special legislative session in September to formulate and approve redistricting plans, then-Gov. [Gary] Johnson’s vetoes left New Mexico without any redistricting plans for the state House and Senate or congressional districts.
The situation this year is similar to 2001. Democrats have majorities in the House and Senate, albeit a small advantage in the House, and a Republican sits in the governor’s mansion. Johnson vetoed a number of the proposals put forth by the legislature that year before the case eventually went to the courts.
After public hearings on the plans throughout the summer, the legislature will likely hold a special session in the fall to vote on the redistricting plans. If all goes well, the plan should be signed by Gov. Susana Martinez in January of next year.
If not, the plan could once again head back to the courts.
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Richardson reflects on his record, election results
Republican Susana Martinez soundly defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in the governor’s race Tuesday.
But over the months it appeared the Doña Ana County prosecutor was running against outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson as much as Denish.
Martinez ripped the once-popular, former Democratic presidential candidate constantly on the campaign trail, dismissing his policies and painting his administration as irredeemably corrupt thanks to the multiple scandals that tarred his time as governor. One of those scandals short-circuited Richardson’s shot at becoming U.S. Commerce Secretary under President Obama. Richardson withdrew his nomination because of a federal pay-to-play investigation that ended in 2009 without indictments.
Denish, for her part, distanced herself from Richardson, with whom she won election twice as lieutenant governor. In New Mexico candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run together.
Earlier this week Richardson finally got his chance to defend his record, telling Gene Grant, the host of KNME’s New Mexico InFocus program, that the only regret he had as governor was his inability to defend his accomplishments during this year’s election.
“I’m very proud of our record,” Richardson told Grant as part of election night coverage produced through a partnership of The Independent, KNME and KUNM, Albuquerque’s National Public Radio affiliate.
Richardson’s only regret
“I walk around the state and it’s very gratifying,” Richardson said during the nearly eight-minute interview. “No, I don’t have any regrets. The only regret was that I wasn’t able to defend my record, and this campaign you had all these negative ads about my record, which were inaccurate.”
“I believe my administration accomplished a lot,” Richardson told Grant. “We created a lot of jobs. We cracked down on DWI. We improved education. We did the Rail Runner, the Spaceport. We did so many things, we expanded teachers’ salaries. We brought the movie industry. But that didn’t come out.”
Many of those accomplishments, such as the RailRunner and Spaceport, provoked controversy, especially from a bipartisan collection of state lawmakers. In other cases measuring the precise effects of Richardson’s policies is difficult to gauge. The multiple scandals didn’t help, obscuring accomplishments Richardson could point to such as his tough stance on DWI, his work to position New Mexico as an early adopter of new energy sources.
But the Denish campaign appeared to make a strategic decision during the election to not only distance herself from Richardson, but also to not defend any accomplishments of the last eight years.
Asked if Denish could have done anything differently during the election, Richardson told Grant “I am not going to criticize any campaign.” But the two-term Democrat admitted to feeling frustrated “sitting on the sidelines.”
Richardson’s remarks about not being able to defend his record echoed the remarks respected New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff made to The Independent on Tuesday:
“Everything from loss of jobs to dropout rates, Diane Denish was being blamed for as part of the Richardson administration,” Sanderoff said of the Martinez campaign. “They saw it as key campaign tactic, and I think I worked.”
The Denish campaign “had a tough decision to make, whether to ignore these associations or to defend. And they chose not to defend,” Sanderoff added.
Sanderoff then ticked off what he viewed as Richardson’s accomplishments: the lowering of the state income tax; eliminating food from the state gross receipts tax; its tough stance on DWI; and its pro-business stance.
“Those would have been good messages in this anti-tax, anti-establishment year,” Sanderoff said. Defending the Richardson administration “may have been tough, but it doesn’t look like ignoring (the associations) worked either,” he said.
Campaigning to help Harry Reid in Nevada
Richardson wasn’t all that visible during this year’s New Mexico governor’s race, but he offered a glimpse during his interview with Grant of how he spent campaign season.
“I was campaigning in Nevada,” Richardson said. “I feel very good and it looks like (Senate Majority Leader Harry) Reid is doing well in an area that I campaigned, the Hispanic community in Reno. I was in Pueblo, Colo.”
Richardson, as one of the most prominent Hispanic elected officials in the country, is often called upon to campaign across the country for other Democrats in high-profile races in which Latinos make up a significant portion of the electorate.
Richardson also acknowledged doing some fundraising for some New Mexico state legislators.
Looking ahead to 2011
Richardson leaves office having served two terms, helping to steer the state through high and low points. He ran unsuccessfully for president, helping to thrust New Mexico onto the national political map more so than usual.
He also led the state during good years in which the state reaped hundreds of millions of dollars in surplus, which were spent on buildings and projects around the state, as well on state services and programs.
But those good times ran out, just as Richardson was entering the final chapter of his governorship, and it pit him against certain powerful legislative leaders as to how New Mexico might extract itself from its budgetary problems.
Richardson often feuded, sometimes fiercely, with his own Democratic colleagues who controlled, and still control, the New Mexico Legislature.
Given his experience, Richardson dispensed some advice to Martinez and to the New Mexico state lawmakers with whom he often tangled Tuesday. The new governor and the Legislature will have to start working together days after Martinez is sworn in as the state’s new governor. And the challenges are substantial.
The biggest challenge facing Martinez and state lawmakers is how to close a $260-million gap in the state budget after the state already has cut costs and raised revenue during previous legislative sessions.
“She has to reach out because she’s of a different party and she is outnumbered,” Richardson said of Martinez.
Democrats hold a 37-33 edge in the number of lawmakers in the House of Representatives and a 27-15 edge in the state Senate.
“But the legislators too have to realize that the voters have sent a message that they want, at least for now, her kind of leadership, her kind of approach to state government,” Richardson said.
Richardson also recommended that Martinez “call in the legislative leadership right away as governor elect Talk to them about the upcoming budget. That’s going to be the most contentious issue.”
Martinez made promises on the campaign trail that she might find hard to keep when state lawmakers converge in Santa Fe in January for the next legislative session.
Like Denish, Martinez promised not to raise taxes in her first year at the same time she promised not to cut two of the largest areas in the state budget — public education and Medicaid, the government’s low-income health insurance program. Education and Medicaid make up 60 percent of the state budget.
Legislative sessions are usually graveyards for election-year promises as rhetoric and philosophical conviction give way to pragmatic deal-making and compromise, especially during tough economic times. But it is unclear how flexible Martinez, or state lawmakers, will be in cobbling together a state spending plan.
Richardson also said that Martinez might want to focus mainly on the state budget during this next session.
“Maybe lay aside the other issues she’s going to want to bring up, like immigration, like crackdowns on crime; make it strictly a budget session,” Richardson told Grant.
Moving on
After such a bitter gubernatorial election, Richardson said what New Mexico needs most is bipartisanship.
“We’re a state that needs unity now,” Richardson told Grant. “It was a very bitter campaign. The time has come to recognize that we need some bipartisanship now. As an outgoing governor I am prepared to be as helpful as I can, just as Gov. (Gary) Johnson was when I came in. He was personally helpful. It’s a tradition I want to continue.”
As for all those attack ads saturating the air and radio waves leading up to Nov. 2, he suggested Democrats and Republicans have to overcome any hard feelings, and get down to the hard work ahead.
“It’s over,” Richardson told Grant. “You get over it. It’s time to govern.”
More than 200,000 voted early in New Mexico
More than 200,000 New Mexicans chose to cast their ballots early this year according to the Secretary of State’s office. That’s a much higher early vote turnout than the last midterm election, in 2006, when about 132,500 people cast early ballots.
We don’t know exactly how many of them were Democrats and Republicans because not all counties report totals by party registration.
The Associated Press reported an expected turnout of around 60 percent of the 1.1 million New Mexico voters. If these predictions prove true, that would mean that nearly one-third of all voters in this year’s midterms voted early.
Another 99,200 voters requested absentee ballots. Absentee ballots must reach the county clerk’s office by 7 p.m. today. Oustanding absentee ballots can be turned in at your polling place.
Governor’s groups slug it out in governor’s race
Two national governors groups have slugged it out for months in New Mexico’s governor race, sinking more than $2 million into the context, reports show.
So far, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has outspent its Democratic counterpart, pumping $1.25 million into the contest compared to $900,000 from the Democratic Governors Association(DGA), state and federal records show.
That edge has helped propel front-runner Republican Susana Martinez toward what increasingly looks like victory on Nov. 2. Martinez has led Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in every independent poll for months and the gap appears to be widening.
The amount of money thrown around by the two governors groups opens a window into how much out-of-state money has entered New Mexico this election cycle. In addition to the $2 million spent by these two groups, at least another $1 million — the majority of it going to Martinez — has entered the governor’s race from outside groups, labor unions and wealthy individuals, pushing the amount of out-of-state money easily past $3 million.
An equal or greater amount of money from out-of-state groups has figured in two of New Mexico’s three congressional races this year.
Beyond demonstrating the amount of money out-of-state groups can throw around in a high-profile race, the big-money slugfest between the DGA and RGA in this year’s governor race also shows how valuable that post is to both national political parties.
In part, that’s because the next governor will preside over New Mexico when the 2012 presidential election rolls around. Governors are often viewed as powerful resources for a party’s nominee during a presidential election, especially in a battleground state like New Mexico.
Then there’s redistricting, the decennial tradition the New Mexico Legislature is about to embark on that requires redrawing the state’s legislative, and federal congressional districts.
With the New Mexico Legislature expected to stay Democratic, Republicans have all the more reason to want a chief executive to act as a check, observers have said.
Eye-popping contributions
That urgency has translated to eye-popping contributions to Martinez from the Republican Governors Association (RGA), which enjoys a five-to-one advantage over its Democratic counterpart in the amount of direct monetary contributions given, state and federal reports show. Records show the RGA giving four contributions of $250,000 and one for $500,000 to Martinez in recent months, records show.
They are among the largest single contributions to a political candidate in decades, if ever, and they come in the last election cycle in which contributors can give whatever they want to a candidate. New Mexico has long belonged to a handful of states where a contributor can give an unlimited sum to a political campaign. But that era ends the day after the Nov. 2 election, when a new law takes limiting campaign contributions takes effect.
“The Democrats are trying to defend more seats nationally,” said Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling Inc. “The Republicans are on the offensive and trying to net some seats.”
Added University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson, “I don’t think the left has as many resources as the right.”
Denish also has benefited from big contributions from the DGA, records show. That group has given her $100,000, $50,000 and $25,000, according to state and federal campaign finance records. But the DGA also has helped in other ways, pumping in more than $750,000 on media buys to the Campaign Group out of Philadelphia to help the Denish campaign with TV ads, state records show.
From Aug. 26 through Sept. 20, the Democratic governors group purchased four media buys from that firm, in amounts of $220,000, $165,000, $165,000 and $219,500, state records show.
Groups like the DGA and RGA, which compete to elect governors from their respective parties, often play a complicated game of political chess each election year as they decide which gubernatorial races across the country are competitive and which are not. Those that are judged as uncompetitive, or too much of a risk, usually lose out in the funding sweepstakes that can result if a candidate attracts interest from a national governors group.
The DGA is competitive in other governor’s races. For example, the DGA has given $1 million to Iowa Gov. Chet Culver’s re-election effort this year and another $1 million to Pennsylvania Democrat Don Onorato, reports show.
High stakes game
The RGA’s advantage in spending in New Mexico might be aided by its sizable fundraising advantage over the DGA nationally, according to reports filed with the federal Internal Revenue Service.
For the three months ending Sept. 30, the Republican Governors Association took in $31 million in contributions while spending just over $40 million, according to a 268-page report filed with the IRS.
That compares to the $9.8 million the DGA took in contributions and the $19 million it spent over the same period, its 261-page Internal Revenue Service report shows.
The RGA has kept a sizable monetary advantage all year, in fact, as it raised $28 million in the first half of the year compared to the DGA’s $17 million, the IRS reports show.
Martinez keeps lead over Denish
Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez leads Democratic candidate Diane Denish 47 percent to 41 percent according to the latest poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal. When “leaners” are included, Martinez leads 49 percent to 42 percent.
The previous Albuquerque Journal poll showed Martinez leading 45 percent to 39 percent.
The results point to an enthusiasm gap, according to the Journal.
Midterm elections, such as this year’s, historically have lower turnouts than presidential elections, Sanderoff said, and that means Denish could lose some support from Democratic voters, who outnumber Republicans and independents in New Mexico, if they don’t turn out.” If turnout is low in this election, then Martinez’s lead will widen,” he said. “For Denish to narrow this gap, her campaign must increase the turnout of at-risk Democratic voters significantly.”
And Martinez has solidified her base, with 83 percent of Republicans saying that they will vote for Martinez. Meanwhile, just 68 percent of Democrats say that they will vote for Denish and 19 percent will vote for Martinez. That still leaves 13 percent of Democrats undecided.
Martinez taps GOP pipeline to out raise Denish
In out-of-state money, in oil-and-gas giving, in the number of eye-popping contributions, Republican Susana Martinez beat Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in the battle of dollars and cents, their latest campaign finance reports show.
Martinez cornered the New Mexico oil and gas industry ($257,500), contractors and builders ($77,150), dairies ($38,000), ranchers ($37,335), even auto dealers ($7,800).
The fundraising totals for Martinez and Denish are already known: Martinez wracked up $2 million to Denish’s nearly $800,000 from June 25 through last week.
But a comparison of the reports Wednesday showed something else: Republicans from outside of New Mexico care big-time about winning the New Mexico governor’s race.
The long-arm of the national Republican Party was evident in the $1.3 million Martinez collected in contributions of $5,000 or more, compared to Denish’s $279,000. That profusion of cash was driven mostly by a few eye-popping contributions from high-profile, and controversial, organizations and individuals with high-profile GOP connections.
The Washington-based Republican Governors Association contributed $500,000 in two $250,000 checks. A conservative Jackson, Wyo. investor added $200,000. Throw in $100,000 from a Malibu, Calif. magnate and the $50,000 from an Oklahoma City energy company, and you have more than 40 percent of Martinez’s fundraising over the period— just from those five contributions.
That gush of out-of-state money sends a message, pollster Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque-based Research and Polling Inc. told the Independent on Wednesday.
“Major corporations and wealthy individuals rarely give unless they feel it is a wise investment,” Sanderoff said. “The money dries up when the major contributors feels their candidate of choice is not competitive. There are various corporate interests who feel that Susana Martinez has a good chance of winning and it’s a lot of lump sums from well-heeled individuals and PACs.”
Big issues at stake
It’s not just winning the governorship of New Mexico that’s drawing such large sums, Sanderoff said. It’s also large national issues. The next governor will preside over New Mexico when the 2012 presidential election rolls around. Governors are often viewed as powerful resources for a party’s nominee during a presidential election, especially in a battleground state like New Mexico.
Then there’s redistricting, the decennial tradition the New Mexico Legislature is about to embark on that requires redrawing the state’s legislative, and federal congressional districts.
“Where the Legislature stays Democratic, it becomes even more important for Republicans to have a check in the executive” during redistricting and presidential election years, Sanderoff said.
With the New Mexico Legislature expected to stay Democratic, Republicans have all the more reason to want a chief executive to act as a check, Sanderoff said.
Martinez’s report is also a sign, beyond Gov. Bill Richardson’s low-approval ratings, voter discontent and recent polls, that Martinez continues to ride high.
“Add all those things up, and it spells momentum,” Sanderoff said.
Denish charges Republicans are trying to buy the race
The Denish campaign on Wednesday attempted to turn the large sums of Republican money rolling in to its advantage.
The campaign sent out a plea to potential donors, saying “Diane needs your help to tell Susana Martinez that our state is not for sale.”
Meanwhile Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, also got into the act, sending out a fundraising pitch to donors with largely the same message: don’t let Republicans buy the New Mexico governor’s race.
Kerry singled out Martinez contributor Bob Perry for special concern in his letter. Perry helped fund the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, the now-infamous group that helped fund a smear campaign against Kerry’s Vietnam War record during the 2004 presidential race.
“You may not have heard of Bob Perry, but he’s a big developer from Texas. He helped bankroll some of the most tasteless, shameful ads in campaign history – including those “Swift Boat” ads back in 2004. Now Perry is back at it and has given Republican candidate Susana Martinez a whopping $450,000 to attack the character of Democrat Diane Denish.”
Martinez received that amount from Perry and his wife before the Republican gubernatorial primary in June.
Denish’s numbers
Judging by the fundraising totals Denish reported Monday, her campaign will need a constant infusion of cash to keep up with Martinez’s pipeline to national GOP donors. Denish’s totals for the two-and-a-half month period ending last week appeared scrawny next to Martinez’s.
Where Martinez could count $1.1 million in contributions of more than $10,000, Denish reported only $170,000. Where Martinez reported more than $1 million in out-of-state money, Denish raised about $160,000.
Meanwhile the oil-and-gas industry, including those who listed themselves in the energy production and distribution businesses, appeared to firmly back Martinez, giving more than $250,000 to her, compared to nearly $13,000 for Denish.
Even Denish’s birthplace and childhood home, Hobbs, situated in New Mexico’s Oil Patch, appeared to be voting with its pocketbook for Martinez. A southeastern New Mexico town of nearly 31,000, individuals and companies from the area ponied up $122,000, according to the Martinez’s report.
The investment world also is giving heavily to Martinez, with 11 contributions totaling $269,817 from investment companies and investors, according to Martinez’s report. Individuals describing themselves as in investments or as an investor contributed $4,625 to Denish’s campaign.
In the end, Denish’s big contributors were labor unions ($50,000), attorneys and law firms ($72,857) and retirees ($71,350), according to her report.
With less than seven weeks to go, Sanderoff said it’s way too early to call a winner in the New Mexico governor’s race, although momentum at this point clearly favors Martinez.
“I suspect that Diane will be successful in raising funds to keep the race competitive,” he said. “Anything can happen in politics. We will have to wait and see.”
GOP poised to take the Secretary of State’s race
Dianna Duran
The last time a Republican won election as New Mexico Secretary of State Herbert Hoover was president and the Great Depression had just begun. Today E. A. Perrault’s role as New Mexico’s last Republican Secretary of State is a historical footnote, a two-year term ending 80 years ago, in 1930. But some political observers are wondering if 2010 might be the year of the GOP.
First-term Democratic Secretary of State Mary Herrera is viewed as vulnerable, after several employees have gone to the FBI to allege corruption in her administration. Herrera, for her part, has dismissed the accusations as politically motivated.
But a GOP victory isn’t a gimme, even if Herrera’s opponent is an experienced politician herself, said a prominent pollster. Herrera’s opponent, GOP state Sen. Dianna Duran, is a former Otero County Clerk with a working knowledge of the state election code, a major responsibility of the secretary of state.
“What it’s going to take is: Can the Republicans find the funding to get this message out to the public,” said pollster Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque-based Research and Polling Inc.
A big campaign war chest would allow Duran to buy TV advertisements to promote her candidacy—and hammer away at Herrera and her troubles, Sanderoff said.
But do the Republicans have the resources to put into the Secretary of State’s race or do they have “other fish to fry?” Sanderoff asked.
Duran’s goal is to purchase time for television commercials, she told The Independent in a phone interview Tuesday.
“I’m hopeful. Our goal is to go up [on TV],” Duran said from Santa Rosa. “We know that we have to do that.”
She and her campaign are working with the Republican Party of New Mexico to arrange financial support, she said.
Asked if a big party contribution might wind up on her campaign finance report, due next Monday, Duran said, “I don’t know if you’ll see it in that report. You may see it on the next report. We are working on that as we speak.”
The Republican Party of New Mexico was circumspect about any potential financial help it might give Duran’s campaign.
“As election day nears, the party will continue to evaluate and allocate resources to our most competitive races,” said party spokeswoman Janel Causey.
But with more than 50 days before the November 2 election, the state Democratic Party isn’t giving up easily on keeping the Secretary of State’s office in the D column.
“The Democratic Party of New Mexico supports all state-wide Democratic candidates in their general election bids, including Secretary of State Mary Herrera, by assisting with fundraising, field work and media relations,” party spokesman James Halinan said in an e-mail late Tuesday afternoon.
King enjoys big lead in AG race, poll finds
Democratic incumbent Gary King leads his Republican challenger Matt Chandler by a wide margin more than two months before November’s election, according to Albuquerque Journal Poll results released today.
Nearly half of the voters — 48 percent — favored the first-term incumbent King over Chandler, who polled at 33 percent, according to the poll. A whopping 19 percent of those surveyed remained undecided, however, according to the Journal.
In a statement e-mailed Tuesday morning, Chandler lashed out at King, saying, “As a c